![]() ![]() There have already been some notable victories, like the killings of Walter Patricio Arizala, alias "Guacho," in December 2018, and that of Edgar Mesías Salgado Aragón, alias "Rodrigo Cadete," in February this year. Thanks to investigations by the Information and Financial Analysis Unit (Unidad de Información y Análisis Financiero – UIAF) and the effective use of asset seizure laws by the Society of Special Assets (Sociedad de Activos Especiales - SAE), the earnings and assets of the ex-FARC mafia would be systematically attacked and undermined.ġ.4 - Security Policy: through an integrated and cohesive strategy, as laid out in the government security doctrine, the Policy of Defense and Security (La Política de Defensa y Seguridad), the state would target the ex-FARC mafia, gradually reducing their territorial reach, killing or capturing their leadership and isolating them from the civilian population. In this scenario, the government would have a serious impact on illegal mining, another big earner for the ex-FARC, using tools such as the Deployment Force against Transnational Threats (Fuerza de Despliegue contra las Amenazas Transnacionales - FUDAT). The government is now poised to start significantly reducing drug plantations. According to data from the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP), coca crops, after years of explosive growth, leveled off in 2018. At the heart of government policy at the moment is the eradication of drug crops and ambitious goals have been set at 80,000 hectares of coca for 2019. In this scenario, the former guerrillas do not show any ideological commitment and simply become small players on an increasingly fragmented criminal stage.ġ.3 - Criminal Economies: The government, through its eradication program and security policy, is able to strangle the ex-FARC mafia economically, systematically attacking its sources of funding. This is already happening in some parts of the country, for example Nariño, where the Óliver Sinisterra Front has been fighting the Guerrillas Unidas del Pacífico (United Guerrillas of the Pacific – GUP) for control of the cocaine trade. Read the full series here.ġ.2 - Criminal Actors: The ex-FARC mafia are unable to unite and indeed end up fighting one another for control of illegal rents, be they drug trafficking, gold mining or extortion. *This InSight Crime investigation into the ex-FARC mafia was carried out over four years and involved field trips to 140 municipalities under threat across Colombia. Under these conditions, further desertion from the peace process will be minimal and the government will be able to gradually consolidate state presence in areas formerly under FARC influence. The government can reassure those still in the process, step up funding and implementation in the 170 municipalities laid out in the Development Plans with Territorial Approach (Planes de Desarrollo con Enfoque Territorial - PDET) and to strengthen the Special Jurisdiction for Peace (Jurisdicción Especial para la Paz - JEP). The Best Case Scenario: The Ex-FARC Mafia Gradually Disappearġ.1 - Peace Process: While damage has been done to the peace process, the vast majority of former rebels appear committed to peace and have no desire to return to a life of violence and crime. Here are three possible future paths for Colombia and the rebel dissidents: 1. ![]() However, there are other, less appetizing scenarios. One sees the ex-FARC mafia consigned to the dustbin of history in a short period of time.
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